Forecasting production losses due to tropical storms/hurricanes is the newest feature in GOM3 Analytics. This feature estimates the loss in production at every platform based on the wind speeds and duration of a storm.
The interface is straightforward: A report on production loss by company (or Gulf-wide) and an interactive map to see estimated production loss at each platform. When choosing a company the list includes the top platform operators and all others as a single group. Within the map, each platform can be clicked to view the forecast. Platforms are sized by the forecasted loss and colored by the percentage of monthly production lost (from red for a high percentage to blue for a low percentage).
The minimal oil production loss forecasted for the Hoover SPAR due to winds from Francine.
The reports from the Production Loss Forecast page display the forecasted loss of production for the current month and the following two months, broken down by previous and current storms. The report includes a graph as shown below. The report available from the map, when clicking on a platform, will display both identification information about the platform and the graph of the oil and gas losses for each month.
Gulf-wide production loss from the first three storms of 2024 to enter the northern Gulf. The active storm is in lighter shades and the previous in darker shades.
Multiple Windspeed Radii from the National Hurricane Center are interpolated and assigned to active platforms during the storm to create hourly windspeed graphs for every platform. The total wind force, considering speed and duration, serves as the basis for regression analysis. Production losses are calculated for the month of the storm and, in the case of hurricanes, the following two months. Data is aggregated GOM-wide and regression analysis is performed on oil and gas separately on all cyclones with at least storm level winds. A function of the windspeeds of at least 34 knots, at least 64 knots, and previous production produces a good regression model for both oil and gas (R-squared > 0.9).
The Storm Production Loss Forecast is available in GOMsmart here. It is part of GOM3 Analytics, which is integrated on new subscriptions, but this feature is available to everyone in GOMsmart this hurricane season. We look forward to your feedback and suggestions, which can be sent here.