Last summer, we introduced a new tool into GOM3 Analytics to forecast production losses due to tropical storms/hurricanes entering the Gulf. It provides real-time estimates of production losses at each producing platform, based on its pre-storm output, the wind speeds and storm duration at each platform (see map).
The model was trained on historical storms and output loss data from 2004 onwards. As there is roughly a six month lag in the release of platform-level production, it is only now that we have the data to assess the accuracy of our 2024 forecasts. We have improved our models based on those insights, which are shown in the statistics here.
Hurricane Francine production loss forecast per platform
From March through May, Gulf-wide oil production averaged 1.823 million bopd and 1.84 bcfpd of gas. In June, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasted the first named storm of the season, Alberto, would make landfall in the western part of the northern Gulf. However, it veered west into the Mexican mainland. The second storm, Beryl, sped through the northern Gulf quickly. The impact from these storms was minimal and by August production returned to normal levels.
September was the big month. Both Francine and Helene entered the Gulf. and Francine hit producing platforms directly. Monthly oil and gas output dropped to 1.61 mmbopd and 1.65 bcfpd respectively. In November, Hurricane Rafael died out before reaching the southern part of the Gulf. Perhaps in reaction to the September storms, there was still a substantial production shut-in anticipating Rafael’s approach. November output was 1.67 mmbopd and 1.73 bcfpd.
Our forecast models, updated every three to six hours during the storms, predicted the September losses well. We estimated that 14% of oil and 21% of gas output would be lost. The actual losses were 12% and 10.3% respectively. In November, our underestimate was larger because Rafael never exposed producing platforms to hurricane force winds. The drops resulted from precautionary actions by operators. We called for a 5.5% oil and 6.5% gas losses and the actuals were 8.2% and 6%.
The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) also releases daily shut-in numbers as reported by operators. BSEE underestimated the actual losses in both high-loss months. In September, oil production went down by 12.6% compared to August. BSEE estimated a 11.4% (compared to ESA’s forecast of 15%). In November, the actual loss was loss was 7.7% compared to October. BSEE estimated a 2.4% loss (ESA forecasted a 5.3% drop (see chart).
We are now prepared for the 2025 season, which begins June 1. While we hope no storms enter the Gulf, that happens only very rarely. Please provide us with any suggestions that would improve the utility of our storm forecasting work to your company, which can be sent here.